最近一些顶级银行最近宣布第一季度财务业绩，如果你收集评论，Coronavirus时代的商业支付新闻并不好，并且很可能会变得更糟：
- Citigroup had a 19% revenue reduction in its B2B commercial card activity in March.
- U.S. Bancorp, a large corporate and freight-payment-business vendor (and who partnered with Visa to launch Syncada), also disclosed in its earnings call that the bank is facing a decline of 30%-40% in its corporate payments business.
- 美国银行在第一季度10-Q与证券交易委员会透露，即交换收入，考虑到奖励和合作伙伴支付，从一年的奖励和合作伙伴支付下降12％，达到7.92亿美元。
- JPMORGAN CHASE的商业服务业务表明，商业加工活动的下降，虽然下降率为4％至14亿美元。
- American Express said that cross-border transactions have taken a big hit and may continue to until the time when the pandemic settles down.
- 正如你所说，因为银行不会那样，不可能做任何真正的苹果到苹果比较。目前尚不清楚银行到目前为止丢失多少交汇处，因为大多数人没有在季度收益报告中报告该信息。
But the data above shows that no one involved in B2B payments is immune. While painful, these top-tier banks are able to withstand the lost interchange and foreign exchange (FX) revenue.
可怕的是，最糟糕的是尚未以破产的形式出现，第11章申请和全球贸易放缓。从内蒙马马库斯到J.船员到金的健身房以及许多行业，以及旅行相关公司，零售商和餐馆链，将显着，消极，影响B2B支付卷。
Additionally, global trade volumes are falling, which also impacts B2B payment volumes. The World Trade Organization expects trade to fall by 13%-32% in 2020 (this wide margin shows just how hard it is to do any accurate forecasting as economies attempt to “open”).
The one bright spot has been e-commerce. But even the digital economy is not immune, as firms like Facebook and Google rely heavily on ad revenue from mainstream America. As that revenue declines for them, their employment of gig workers and independent contractors declines.
Question for B2B fintech business models
How will B2B fintechs that built their business models on interchange and FX revenue hold up during this time period?
Many companies built their business models on B2B payment volumes and revenue from FX and card payments. With volumes set to decline further for many sectors, how will that impact monthly recurring revenue, cash flow and the ability to meet run rate? How will that impact some vendors’ ability to access capital and credit with financial institutions? Or draw on private equity funding tied to meeting certain milestones? We know there have been massive layoffs in fintech already. Layoff Tracker has been a key site for anyone monitoring this space.
While certain verticals may hold up reasonably well, such as healthcare and food distribution, most fintech providers face at least one of three problems with a rapid reduction in payment volumes:
1.由于体积滴减少FX和交换。
2. Increase in insolvencies and bankruptcies, resulting in exposures on any early-pay finance initiatives.
3. Increase in chargebacks, creating fund recovery issues specifically tied to payment companies in the merchant acquirer business.
It will be tough sledding for many B2B fintechs that rely on growing revenue through payments. The silver lining in all of this is that there is no longer any disagreement about digitizing AP and payments. Companies that have many disparate manual processes will be looking to automate the entire invoice-to-pay process. This will bode well for the future, but until then, many companies will be in survival mode, especially small start-ups with limited access to new capital.
David Gustin runs Global Business Intelligence, a research and advisory practice focused on the intersection of payments, trade finance, trade credit and working capital. He can be reached at dgustin (at) globalbanking.com.
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